Predictions

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Blog Posts

March 20, 2025
2024-2025 Law School Admissions Cycle Progress

As of March 20, 2025, nearly 7,000 offers of admission remain at the top 100 law schools, including 2,500 from top 20 schools. While we don't have definitive data yet, these figures provide a snapshot of the cycle’s progress.

October 15, 2024
Predicting the 2024-2025 Law School Application Cycle (Early Data)

The very first LSAC Volume Summary Report of the cycle just dropped, which means we have our first applicant (and application) data for 2024-2025.

August 3, 2023
Predicting the 2023-2024 Law School Admissions Cycle

The 2022-2023 application cycle is coming to a close, and overall, it will finish with about 2% fewer applicants than the prior cycle—the lowest total number of applicants since the 2017-2018 cycle. In this blog, we look at 2023-2024.

June 20, 2022
Early Thoughts on the 2022-2023 Application Cycle + 2021-2022 Recap

It's certainly too early to make predictions with any sort of certainty, but given that we now have final June LSAT numbers, and registration for the August LSAT is now closed, we now have some early indicators of what we might expect to see in the 2022-2023 law school admissions cycle.

January 24, 2021
What Might the Second Half of the Law School Admissions Cycle Look Like?

We are essentially at the midway point of the admissions cycle. Predicting part 2.

July 7, 2020
Predicting the 2020/2021 Law School Admissions Cycle

The 2020-2021 admissions cycle is going to be the most challenging yet to predict, and most will understand a large part of that uncertainty.

May 7, 2020
Predicting the COVID-19 Summer Of Law School Waitlist Movement

Early in my admissions career, a former boss of mine would often use the following Niels Bohr quote when speaking of law school admissions: “prediction is difficult, especially when it involves the future.”

March 28, 2020
When will larger numbers of law school admissions decisions come?

This will be a short but I hope important blog to consider. It's been a notoriously slow admission cycle, and it possibly would have stayed at an equally slow pace until COVID-19 changed things in many dramatic ways.

January 21, 2020
How will the upcoming “Demographic Cliff” Impact Admissions? (Spoiler: it is going to be substantial)

In the past month or so, I’ve had the good fortune to speak with the Chancellors to the respective boards of two vastly different universities.

Podcasts

February 4, 2021
Why Some Law School Applicants Underperform Their Numbers

In this podcast, Mike Spivey discusses factors that lead to some applicants "underperforming" their numbers. You can listen to this podcast below, or on SoundCloud  or Apple Podcasts.

Introduction

  • 0:46 - Will more people underperform this cycle? (2020-2021)
  • 1:41 - Defining "Underperform"

Factors that can lead to underperforming your numbers

  • 4:44 - Character & Fitness Issues (but maybe not in the way you think)
  • 6:44 - Yield Protection
  • 8:17 - Overcommunicating
  • 10:40 - Sloppiness

Answering Questions from Reddit

  • 13:05 - "Is it the essay or lack of an added essay (DS) that throws off an entire application?"
  • 14:44 - "Is having a non legal job in Biglaw going in a boost as schools will see you connections that may help boost the schools standing?"
  • 15:26 - "How disadvantaged are KJDs in the admissions process?"
  • 16:59 - "Do GRE applicants more often underperform their numbers? With the high LSAT saturation, will this negatively affect GRE applicants?"
  • 17:54 - "Considering how some services quantify the 'URM Boost' in applications (7Sage predictor and LSData URM LSAT/GPA differential, for example), what specifically causes URMs to underperform their stats?"
  • 19:41 - "I’ve been rejected by UMich with a 3.mid and 17high, does this count as underperforming my numbers? If so, is this indicative of how the rest of my cycle with the T14 will go?"
  • 20:02 - "Any data / longitudinal studies on engineers?"
  • 20:42 - "I’m sure this will vary by schools, but in your experience as someone who made decisions on files, if a candidate is at/above both of a school’s target medians AND has demonstrated genuine interest, how much can those two factors carry them if the rest of the app is average? Will the answer to this question be different this year because of the availability of good stats?"
  • 21:28 - "Would you say if there are multiple LSAT scores without a consistent increase in score (i.e. there was a score drop before the ultimate high score) then that person is likely to underperform? Especially asking for T6/T14? Would your answer change if the final score was a 175+?"

Conclusion

  • 23:48 - Takeaways & Predictions for the Rest of the Cycle
February 16, 2021
Dr. Guy Winch on Handling Rejection (& Waiting) in the Admissions and Job Search Process

Dr. Guy Winch is one of the world's leading psychologists and speakers. He has delivered three TED Talks with over 25 million views combined, all three of which can be seen here. He has published three books and along with best-selling author Lori Gottlieb co-hosts a relatively new but already incredibly popular podcast Dear Therapists.

In this 40-minute podcast, we speak about rejection at the macro level — "Do we aggregate rejection, and why does it sting so bad?" — and then in the admissions and first job search process specifically. Dr. Winch speaks toward research and numerous helpful interventions in both the perceived feelings of rejection and the problem issues involved in waiting on decisions.

Perhaps most notably, Dr. Winch tells a story about the first time he applied to graduate school, when he applied to 10 different programs, was denied by 9, and was "ghosted" (he literally never heard from them) by the 10th. Which makes his conversation with us not just incredibly helpful, but also relatable. We've all been rejected at something, many things — including those at the very pinnacle of their professional careers.

We mention in this podcast an episode of Dr. Peter Attia's The Drive in which Dr. Winch is interviewed — you can listen to that episode here.

You can listen and subscribe to Status Check with Spivey on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, YouTube, SoundCloud, and Google Podcasts.

March 2, 2021
Current Cycle Update, Waitlist Considerations, and Next Cycle Predictions with Dave Killoran

In this podcast, Spivey Consulting Group's Mike Spivey and PowerScore founder Dave Killoran discuss the state of the current 2020-2021 law school admissions cycle, things to consider for applicants who may be on waitlists, and predictions about next cycle (2021-2022).

You can listen to this podcast below, or on SoundCloud or Apple Podcasts.

March 25, 2021
Preliminary Waitlist Movement Perspectives

In this podcast, Mike Spivey discusses perspectives and considerations as we head into the 2021 law school waitlist season.

You can listen to this podcast below, or on SoundCloud or Apple Podcasts.

March 17, 2021
Interview with a Biglaw Partner (Jeff Chapman, Gibson Dunn Co-Chair of Global M&A)

In this podcast, Mike interviews Jeff Chapman: Partner, Co-Chair of Global Mergers and Acquisitions, and Executive Committee Member at Gibson Dunn. Mike and Jeff met when Mike was a law school Dean of Career Services, and they became good friends — in this interview, Jeff shares his story, some thoughts and advice about law school, and a bit of biglaw hiring advice.

You can listen to this podcast below, or on SoundCloud or Apple Podcasts.

March 31, 2021
Upcoming Podcast: Interview with Dr. Gabor Maté

We are thrilled to announce that we will be interviewing Dr. Gabor Maté — renowned physician, speaker, and author of four best-selling books including the critically-acclaimed In the Realm of Hungry Ghosts — for a podcast episode to be released on May 15. We will be discussing with Dr. Maté the roots of anxiety and addiction, particularly in relation to law school and the legal field. One in 5 attorneys struggle with alcohol abuse, 1 in 5 show symptoms of clinic anxiety, and 1 in 4 suffer from depression (source) — mental illness and addiction are very real and present problems in the legal field, and we look forward to sharing Dr. Maté's insights with you.

You can subscribe to our podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or YouTube for access to all of our past and upcoming episodes. We post advice, analysis, and predictions about law school admissions, plus we interview notable people about admissions, legal education, and the legal field. Our last two podcast interviews featured Gibson Dunn Partner/M&A Chair Jeff Chapman and acclaimed psychologist/TED Talk speaker Guy Winch, and we are excited for upcoming interviews with a law school dean, the preeminent researcher on self-compassion, a current admissions dean from a top 3 law school, and many more.