December 5, 2014

Full 2014-2015 Applicant and Application Projections

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Full 2014-2015 Applicant and Application ProjectionsSpivey Consulting Group

Based on the 12/5 data release, which at this time last year accounted for 23% of the full pool, some industries law school applicants have projected year end totals and shared with us. Here is how they calculated the below:

  1. We calculated what the number of applicants was at this time last year last year using the % Difference and the number of applicants released this year.
  2. Take those numbers as a proportion of the final numbers for that bracket
  3. Use those proportions to project this year’s final numbers with what we have now

So for example, for the 170-174 bracket:

  1. This year we have 945 applicants so far for a 13.5% decrease. That means we had 1092 applicants with those numbers at this time last year.
  2. Since there were 2196 170-174 applicants at the end of the cycle, that means at this time last year, 49.75% (1092/2196) of the 170-174 applicant pool was already submitted.
  3. Assuming at the 945 170-174 applicants we already have now will also be 49.75% of the total pool, that means there should be 1900 total such applicants at the end.

Then repeat for each score range.

and here are the projections

2014/15 (12/5)

Highest LSAT Final Projected Total Final Projected Total vs. 2013
< 140 2326 -398
140–144 5092 -801
145–149 7880 -548
150–154 9867 -720
155–159 8997 -922
160–164 7191 -87
165–169 4057 -727
170–174 1900 -296
175–180 475 -117
170+ 2374 -414
Total/Average 47783 -4618
-8.81%
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Mike Spivey

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