What Are Your Chances Off the Waitlist?

In this episode of Status Check with Spivey, Mike discusses the various factors that play into any given applicant's chances of admission coming off the waitlist. He also gives a quick preview of our (very early) predictions for next cycle.

You can listen and subscribe to Status Check with Spivey on ⁠⁠Apple Podcasts⁠⁠, ⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠, ⁠⁠YouTube⁠⁠, and ⁠⁠Google Podcasts⁠⁠.

Mike: Welcome to Status Check with Spivey, where we talk about life, law school, law school admissions, a little bit of everything. It's 5 a.m. on a Sunday, so there's going to be two early parts to this podcast that will, if not already relatable to your life, very much soon will be to your legal life. One is, get ready for these 5 a.m. wake-up times. I want to, actually as a former Dean of Career Services, I want to stop on that. I think it's almost glamorous to say, “Oh, I can't wait for biglaw and the grind,” and some people do thrive in those environments. What I would say is, on a personal note, please give yourself downtime. All of us, no matter what we say to ourselves, need some balance in our lives, okay? So I do find that balance not every day, but on some days, and it's a message I've been wanting to say for years and I haven't really had the opportunity. So it just strikes me.

Number two is this podcast is not on that. This is purely an admissions podcast. “What are my chances of getting off the waitlist?” is going to be the title. And the answer is, it depends. Get used to that answer, but I want to address this because it's come up online. Obviously, it comes up every year. Obviously, it is a very important topic to people waitlisted. “What are my chances of getting off the waitlist?”

The technical answer would be you don't know. I’m going to give you some help but let me tell you why you don't know. Every cycle is different. So you're looking at past data or very limited data from this cycle, that is like building a plane while you're flying it. The data this cycle is just ever-changing and it's very limited. Then the data for the past cycles is irrelevant because the applicant pool was different.

Speaking of applicant pools, the applicant pool to each law school is different. So your chances at Vanderbilt might be entirely different than your chances at UVA or Emory or Georgia. Three kind of similar schools, two private, one public, regionally similar, rankings in maybe the same hemisphere. But their applicant pools can vary wildly. Vanderbilt may have crushed it early on their target LSAT – and again, this is hypothetical – but they may have shored up their LSAT by May.

So your chances are really low if you have a high LSAT and a low GPA, and your chances are a lot higher if you have a high GPA and a low LSAT. They're not telling the world that. You have no way of knowing. They're not telling the world the work experience additions or the essays, schools have more extensive essay notes than ever before. “Oh, we need someone with this background from a different part of the country who has worked for four years,” you have no idea what their current class composition is. And what law schools do is they try to build classes that balance each other out. Learning occurs when you're hearing from other people's diverse perspectives, not when you're just being told what you believe.

Just about all law schools are looking for a complexity, a diversity of perspectives. East Coast, West Coast, liberal, conservative, work experience, KJD. There's a lot of discussion about work experience helping. Well, if the law school had all people with work experience, they would probably, believe it or not, be looking for KJDs off the waitlist. You see where I'm going with this.

Of course, every law school has a portfolio of people they've admitted, and around now, or soon to be, people that have seat-deposited. As the cycle progresses, they have more and more data on who has seat-deposited. Keeping in mind, they can lose many of those seat deposits all the way up till the end of August, beginning of September, and trust me, it happens. I'll give you an example from a client. I had a client whose dream school was Stanford who was in his first week of orientation at Michigan Law, and we said, “hey, it's Stanford's first day of orientation. Why don't you send an email to them just in case someone didn't show up?”

If someone didn't show up and you're pleasant and they liked you, there is a possibility they could just admit you. And sure enough, he said something like, I love this wording. If everyone uses it, it's not going to work, right, but, “I would walk from Michigan to Stanford if I had to. That's how much I want to go.” And they admitted him, the first day of orientation. He just packed up the stuff and left. So where am I going with this? There's going to be more of that, I'm not saying the day of orientation, but there's going to be more rolls and rolls and rolls of waves of waitlist movement.

So I can't tell you, you have a 5% chance probability, I saw that on Reddit, it's just, having done this for 26 years, this is not an attack on the person that said it, but anyone saying to a stranger, “your chance at this school, even though I don't know you or the school's applicant pool, their admit pool, their seat deposits, is 5%. With all the data I have, all the resources I have, all the connections I have, all the experience I have, I could never come close to saying that.

What I would say is, your chances might be 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%. If you're admitted off the waitlist, by definition, your chances were 100% and a lot of waitlist admits are coming.

So let me end on that note. I've said this before and I'll say it again. This has been an incredibly slow cycle. I was with two deans of admissions this past week. They are readily admitting to the fact that they are teeing up their waitlist. No, I can't say who. Sorry.

So waitlist admits are coming. They might not feel like they're coming for you if waves come out and you're not in that wave. But that wave, followed by another wave, followed by another wave, is a trigger that that probability of getting off the waitlist is real. We have no idea what that number is. I can't give you a number, obviously.

I said earlier in this cycle, and this is true. There are many schools where 50% of their entering class are going to be from the waitlist. Now this has been misinterpreted a number of times. The person who took the direct quote from our podcast and put it, thank you. That doesn't mean that 50% of all law school students will have come from the waitlist. Not every school, right? Yale might take 1% of their waitlist. That also doesn't mean that your chances are 50%. Because some schools, like Columbia for example, waitlist a huge proportion. And other schools waitlist a much smaller proportion. So the raw number is going to be a part of the equation of what percentage of the entire applicant pool was waitlisted.

So let me just pause for a second. It dawns on me I've been doing this for 26 years, and sometimes I throw out data just assuming everyone listening is so deeply entrenched in admissions, they get every little nuance, and this is on me. I'm going to make up school names. If Princeton Law School waitlists 2,000 people, and by the way, there are law schools that waitlist huge numbers of people, that doesn't mean they're admitting 1,000 people off the waitlist. But if they're matriculating a class of 300, it plausibly could mean that of that class of 300, 150 matriculants are from the waitlist. So again, we don't know the probabilities, but we do know at the macro level, some schools waitlist extraordinary numbers of people. We've blogged about this. That is good news and bad news.

The good news is those schools that waitlist extraordinary numbers of people, they're going to take a large number off that waitlist. If they waitlist 1,000 people, they might admit 300 off the waitlist. Because only 50 percent of that 300 is going to yield, others are going to other schools, and then they're going to get 150 to matriculate to their schools. The math is interesting because it's both advantageous as far as large numbers but proportionally, they're still being selective. It varies from school to school. So, without the school giving you the probability, quite frankly, no one can, particularly someone just sort of guessing, or looking at Law School Data, which is a tiny sample size.

So again, this doesn't give you an exact probability view, but what is happening is, you can go back to our podcast on this, we said it before the cycle started. Because of all these dynamics that went into this cycle, this cycle was incredibly slow and very waitlist heavy, which means that more people are going to be admitted off the waitlist than we've seen before.

Let me end on a final note about next cycle. Don't think about it yet. You also get a lot of these messages on Reddit, and we get emails, “hey, my cycle is over, I'm doomed,” and then you ask someone for their profile and they still have like 12 pending. Or two rejections, eight waitlists, and two pending. Your cycle isn't over. Things are still to be determined. You can only go to one law school. You can't go to multiple law schools. You still might get a great admit.

But, if you're thinking about next cycle, I do want to say that we'll know a ton more in July and then a ton more in August, and we'll do blogs or podcasts each time. There's limited data based on LSAT registrants, based on macro demographic data. A presidential election year, getting further and further removed from the bad press during the Great Recession about law schools not leading to legal careers. So the legal job market has been, I mean we'll see what happens with AI, but has been stronger. So we're getting away from that apprehension of being a lawyer.

So if we had to guess right now, we're going to guess that applications will be up next year. And we've been pretty, I don't know if luck's the right word, amazingly lucky every year with these projections. I wouldn't really rest too much on my projection right now, but wait until July and we'll have a lot more data from LSAT registrants.

So there's no one on the planet other than the admissions dean if they're going to be so generous. And it would be kind of a weird question to ask. “Hey, what are my percent chances?” Though sometimes admissions offices, obviously they put people in tiers. So obviously your percent chances, your probability is higher if you're in the first tier of the waitlist. And sometimes admissions officers are very candid and straightforward. “We really think we're going to get to you,” or “we really think that this class is looking strong and it's unlikely.” I think that's a fair question a little bit later. “I need to make my life decisions where I'm going to live, where I secure housing.” And they may say something along those lines. But unless an admissions officer for their school says, “you're 80% likely,” no other person on the planet can say it. All we know is that a lot of waitlist movement is coming. This was Mike Spivey, the Spivey Consulting Group.

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September 8, 2026

Interview Prep for Law School Admissions, with Meg Krishnan

In this episode of Status Check with Spivey, Anna Hicks-Jaco is joined by Spivey consultant Meg Krishnan, former Director of Admissions and Programs at UChicago Law, for a conversation about preparing for law school admissions interviews. Meg spent nine admissions cycles at UChicago Law, ultimately running the school’s interview program and personally conducting thousands of admissions interviews. She shares what admissions offices are looking for in interviews and how applicants can prepare in a way that feels confident, natural, and intentional.

They discuss the different roles interviews can play in the admissions process and the different formats applicants may encounter (3:51); what an interviewer may review from your application before speaking with you (6:55); how to prepare your “why law” answer using Meg’s “ghosts of Christmas” framework of past, present, and future (9:08); and how to start researching and preparing for “why this law school?” questions well before receiving an interview invitation (12:18). Meg also shares a simple method for keeping track of school-specific research over time (15:52); what to prioritize once you actually receive an interview invitation, from logistics to reviewing your own application materials (19:35); and why applicants should practice from bullet points rather than scripting and memorizing their answers (24:28).

Anna and Meg also dive deeper into what makes a strong “why X” answer and the importance of connecting what a law school offers back to your own experiences and strengths (28:54); common interview mistakes and how to recover when something goes wrong (31:55); strategies for building confidence before an interview, including an exercise from psychologist Dr. Guy Winch (41:09); and practical ways to reduce distracting filler words and become more comfortable with pauses (43:36). They close with advice on taking care of yourself throughout the process, learning how to reset after a difficult moment, and remembering that receiving an interview invitation itself means the law school is interested in you (51:43).

A note on interview formats: Much of the advice in this episode is most directly applicable to invited interviews and one-on-one interviews with a human interviewer. However, many of the preparation strategies discussed also apply to other formats, including Kira and other prerecorded interviews.

Related resources: For a broader overview of law school interviews, including different interview formats and additional preparation advice, see our Interview Strategy Deep Dive with Former Law School Admissions Officers podcast. For more on the types of questions applicants may encounter, listen to Five Categories of Law School Admissions Interview Questions & How to Answer Them, with former Harvard Law Director of Admissions Karen Buttenbaum—including a bonus sixth category of curveball questions.

For more advice and resources on researching individual law schools and developing a strong, differentiated “why X,” see our Why X Essay Deep Dive: Advice from Former Law School Admissions Officers podcast episode. Anna also references our earlier conversation with psychologist Dr. Guy Winch, Dr. Guy Winch on Handling Rejection (& Waiting), which includes the confidence exercise discussed in this episode.

You can listen and subscribe to Status Check with Spivey on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and YouTube. You can read a full transcript of this episode with timestamps below.

August 25, 2026

Dr. Gabor Maté on Self-Doubt, Stress, Anxiety, & the Pressure to Succeed (Re-Release)

Originally published in 2021, this conversation with Dr. Gabor Maté explores self-doubt, stress, anxiety, addiction, and the pressures that can come with pursuing ambitious academic and professional goals.

Mike Spivey speaks with Dr. Maté, world-renowned physician and author of In the Realm of Hungry Ghosts, When the Body Says No, and The Myth of Normal, about how these challenges can affect prospective law students and others navigating high-pressure environments.

One of Dr. Maté’s insights for prospective and incoming law students:

“You're going to look at all your confident classmates, and you're going to go in there with all manner of self-doubt. You're making the big mistake of comparing their outside with your inside. You have no idea what their inside is like. And believe me, you're not the only one.”

This episode is a re-release of our 2021 conversation with Dr. Gabor Maté.

Law School Preparation

August 11, 2026

Inside BigLaw Hiring with Dr. Milana Hogan, Sullivan & Cromwell Chief Talent Officer

In this episode of Status Check with Spivey, Mike is joined by Dr. Milana Hogan, Chief Talent Officer at Sullivan & Cromwell, and Rob Baker, a former law firm hiring committee member and BigLaw attorney, for a conversation about the increasingly front-loaded BigLaw recruiting process and what prospective and current law students should know about navigating it. Rob has held recruiting roles at large, medium, and boutique-sized law firms, while Dr. Hogan has spent nearly two decades at Sullivan & Cromwell working in talent, associate development, and recruiting.

The group discusses how law firm recruiting has shifted earlier over time and the market pressures driving that change (7:41); whether hiring could move even earlier and why first-semester law school grades may serve as a practical stopping point (13:48); whether 0Ls should already be reaching out to firms and how to approach those conversations from a learning rather than a “will you hire me?” posture (17:13); the value of LinkedIn, low-pressure outreach, and building relationships before recruiting formally begins (20:53); and why the current system may create new opportunities for 2Ls and 3Ls who missed out earlier in the process (24:39).

They also discuss how AI is affecting BigLaw work and hiring, including Sullivan & Cromwell’s use of AI as one part of its holistic hiring process (28:34); what can turn hiring partners off in an interview and why trying too hard to demonstrate how smart you are can backfire (31:47); the importance of curiosity, humility, and a willingness to learn from more experienced lawyers (34:45); and why students should take ownership of their careers, seek out opportunities, and practice interviewing before the real thing (37:52).

Related resources: Mike references NALP Executive Director Nikia Gray’s article, The “Cruel” Recruiting Timeline, which examines the history of OCI and the market forces behind the increasingly accelerated law firm recruiting process. He also references a South Park episode parodying Black Friday’s increasingly early start as an analogy for how BigLaw recruiting has continued moving earlier.

You can listen and subscribe to Status Check with Spivey on ⁠⁠Apple Podcasts⁠⁠, Spotify⁠⁠, and ⁠⁠YouTube⁠⁠. You can read a full transcript of this episode with timestamps below.

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What Are Your Chances Off the Waitlist?

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What Are Your Chances Off the Waitlist?

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